Natasha Liston-Beck - ORACLES: Space Futures

ORACLES is a collaborative project between NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the United States Space Force (USSF). I began development of this project in September 2020 and will most likely be leaving the project this project in April of 2021. This program is a simulator that aims to help NASA and USSF administrators develop the best plan of action for investments in our space future. It is being developed in the Unity Game Engine in order to best manage a multi-user environment, accurately simulate the space environment, and create a dynamic and appealing user interface.

This project was first presented by Robert B. Adams, PhD, at AIAA ASCEND in November 2020. It has been published as an AIAA ASCEND paper and subsequently been presented at other virtual conferences.

The ORACLES program has three modes of use: database entry, automated scenario, and multi-user scenario. The Database Entry mode is used for Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to input data related to specific technologies and infrastructures that they are working on or otherwise believe will be relevant during the next forty years of space exploration. There will be three levels of security for this data, first being open source and available to the public for experimentation and to raise public awareness of space futures, and the other two being secure and top secret to handle more sensitive data.

The automated scenario functions by iterating through as many possible decisions each year of the simulation and selecting to invest in the technologies, infrastructures, and policies that give the most outsized benefit towards the initial user-input goals for optimization. This mode will use a rudimentary AI system for each "entity" participating in the simulation. Entities are governmental, private, and multinational spacefaring organizations.

Finally, the multi-user scenario allows humans-in-the-loop testing of the program in addition to training opportunities. This use mode is likely to be operated at Space Futures Workshops in the upcoming months. This operation mode can incorporate AI users as entities that will not be operated by a human user. Users make selections restricted by their yearly budget on investments, categorized as technologies, infrastructures, and policies.

MAIN USER INTERFACE

Users can rotate to navigate the solar system and view the simulation from different perspectives

A sliding scale is available for users to get a sense of the actual scale of the solar system in addition to the visible scale that allows users to more easily see and interact with the planetary bodies and any orbital or surface infrastructures.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Infrastructure is any permanent or semi-permanent structure or vehicle that can support missions or projects. It is typically comprised of multiple technologies. Launch Complex 39 and the International Space Station are both examples of infrastructures in this program.

Data entry screen for infrastructure, in this case a solar thermal Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). SMEs select the location of use for this infrastructure, including orbital parameters or surface latitude and longitude, a timeline for development of one or more units, and the capabilities of this infrastructure.

TECHNOLOGY

The technology taxonomy navigation screen, used by data entry SMEs and simulation users.

In the Database Entry mode, SMEs can enter a new technology by selecting the complexity level of the technology (is it a system, subsystem, component, or part), the current technology readiness level (TRL), and filling out the table with cursory or detailed information regarding tasks, schedule, labor, and more relevant information. The program then automatically calculates the overall cost as far as resources and time required to invest in this technology to advance it to the next TRL.

The following four images demonstrate the 3D technology tree which allows the user to analyze and select a development path to advance a technology from one readiness level (TRL) to the next and establish a fully functional technological system that can be implemented in future projects and infrastructures.

POLICY

This is currently the least-developed portion of the program due to the complexity of a civil service organization modeling governmental decision-making in order to enhance both organizations effectiveness.

YEARLY SIMULATION RESULTS

At the end of each year of the simulation every participating entity will receive a breakdown screen such as this one that covers the current status of their investment projects and related budget. This marks any budget and time overages as calculated by the program's Monte Carlo algorithm which will adjust for some level of randomness within the ranges set by SMEs.